I fear the worst for our Tigers.
Did you see Cabrera’s new contract. It’s the death of the Tigers. We better win it all in the next 2 years
because it’s going to be downhill after that.
We’ll have over $50MM a year wrapped up in aging players Cabrera and
JV.
I’m not optimistic about the Tigers this
year. I think Brad Ausmus will be a good
coach but I think the off-season moves make us really thin and we’ve already
been hit by the injury bug. I think KC
will finally pass up the Tigers this year and we’ll land in a wildcard spot at
best. We’re relying on too many unproven
players. Here’s my breakdown.
The differences 2013 to 2014
Rotation:
Verlander – expect a better season, +3 wins
Scherzer-tough to repeat Cy Young, -3 wins
Sanchez-same as last year, +/-0
Porcello-expect an improvement, +2 wins
Fister to Smyly-it’s not realistic to
expect Smyly to be as good as Fister was (14-9), -3 wins
Total: -1 win, and the rotation is our
strength
Bullpen:
Benoit to Nathan – No matter what anyone
says, this isn’t an improvement at closer, Benoit was 4-1 with 24 saves and 2
blown, Nathan was 6-2 with 43 saves and 3 blown, +/-0
Smyly/Veras to Chamberlain/Krol – There’s
no replacement for Smyly in the bullpen and that may prove to be big. -3 wins
Albequrque/Coke-Same as last year, +/-0
Putkonen/Reed-same as last year,+/-0
Rondon/Bonderman/Valverde to Ortega/others –
As good as Rondon was down the stretch, the others were bad, we’ll break even
here with Rondon gone, +/-0
Total:
-3 wins, could be better if someone emerges, but could be worse if
Nathan shows his age.
Lineup:
1B/3B Cabrera-expect the same, but improves
the defense +1 win
RF Hunter- expect the same +/-0
CF Jackson-some likely improvement +2 wins
LF Dirks/Tuiasopo/Kelly to Davis/Dirks/Kelly-Davis’
defense and speed will be a little improvement but Dirks is out so not much
will change, +/-0
C Avila-hard not to improve but Pena actually hit well as the backup and that's asking a lot from the new guy Holaday, +1 win
2B Infante to Kinsler-hard to improve when Infante hit
.318 with an .800 ops but I’ll buy in for +1 win
SS Peralta/Iglesias to Romine/Gonzalez/Iglesias-shortstop
will cost us big this year -3 wins
3B/1B Fielder to Castellanos-At best Castellanos
could have an .819 ops and win rookie of the year and that would be an even
swap, -5 wins
DH Martinez-hope for the best, similar but not
too much older, -1 win
Total: -4 wins, this may be optimistic based on the
injuries to Dirks, Iglesias plus you can’t completely count on Jackson and
Avila to improve.
Grand Total: -8 wins for the Tigers. That puts the Tigers at 85-77 which is maybe
a wildcard team but not a division winner.
Take out the improvements from Avila and Jackson and include any more
injuries and our lack of depth and it’s an 81-81 season.
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