My 2014 Tigers Preview and Breakdown Position by Position

I fear the worst for our Tigers.

Did you see Cabrera’s new contract.  It’s the death of the Tigers.  We better win it all in the next 2 years because it’s going to be downhill after that.  We’ll have over $50MM a year wrapped up in aging players Cabrera and JV.

I’m not optimistic about the Tigers this year.  I think Brad Ausmus will be a good coach but I think the off-season moves make us really thin and we’ve already been hit by the injury bug.  I think KC will finally pass up the Tigers this year and we’ll land in a wildcard spot at best.  We’re relying on too many unproven players.  Here’s my breakdown.

The differences 2013 to 2014

Rotation:

Verlander – expect a better season, +3 wins

Scherzer-tough to repeat Cy Young, -3 wins

Sanchez-same as last year, +/-0

Porcello-expect an improvement, +2 wins

Fister to Smyly-it’s not realistic to expect Smyly to be as good as Fister was (14-9), -3 wins

Total: -1 win, and the rotation is our strength

Bullpen:

Benoit to Nathan – No matter what anyone says, this isn’t an improvement at closer, Benoit was 4-1 with 24 saves and 2 blown, Nathan was 6-2 with 43 saves and 3 blown, +/-0

Smyly/Veras to Chamberlain/Krol – There’s no replacement for Smyly in the bullpen and that may prove to be big. -3 wins

Albequrque/Coke-Same as last year, +/-0

Putkonen/Reed-same as last year,+/-0

Rondon/Bonderman/Valverde to Ortega/others – As good as Rondon was down the stretch, the others were bad, we’ll break even here with Rondon gone, +/-0

Total:  -3 wins, could be better if someone emerges, but could be worse if Nathan shows his age.

Lineup:

1B/3B Cabrera-expect the same, but improves the defense +1 win

RF Hunter- expect the same +/-0

CF Jackson-some likely improvement +2 wins

LF Dirks/Tuiasopo/Kelly to Davis/Dirks/Kelly-Davis’ defense and speed will be a little improvement but Dirks is out so not much will change, +/-0

C Avila-hard not to improve but Pena actually hit well as the backup and that's asking a lot from the new guy Holaday, +1 win

2B Infante to Kinsler-hard to improve when Infante hit .318 with an .800 ops but I’ll buy in for +1 win

SS Peralta/Iglesias to Romine/Gonzalez/Iglesias-shortstop will cost us big this year -3 wins

3B/1B Fielder to Castellanos-At best Castellanos could have an .819 ops and win rookie of the year and that would be an even swap, -5 wins

DH Martinez-hope for the best, similar but not too much older, -1 win

Total:  -4 wins, this may be optimistic based on the injuries to Dirks, Iglesias plus you can’t completely count on Jackson and Avila to improve.

Grand Total: -8 wins for the Tigers.  That puts the Tigers at 85-77 which is maybe a wildcard team but not a division winner.  Take out the improvements from Avila and Jackson and include any more injuries and our lack of depth and it’s an 81-81 season.